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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers improving together. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still