A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
